技术进步、结构变动与改善国民经济中间消耗

本文利用历年的投入产出数据,对中国1992年以来中间消耗水平的变化趋势进行了分析。通过三大产业部门直接消耗系数矩阵和中间需求消耗矩阵时间序列研究了技术进步、产业结构变动及价格变化对整个国民经济中间消耗水平的影响。研究表明,在这一时期,技术进步对降低国民经济中间消耗的水平和改善经济增长效率做出了贡献,但由于价格关系的改变和中间消耗水平较高的部门比重增加,用现行价格反映的整个国民经济的中间消耗率反而是上升的。要改变这一趋势,保持我国的可持续发展,提高各部门的投入产出效率,要和产业结构的调整和升级结合起来。在这一分析的基础上,本文探讨了降低整个国民经济中间消耗水平的具体途径。     

Material implication of Chile's economic growth: Combining material flow accounting (MFA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA)

Over the last three decades, the economic integration of the Chilean economy into global markets has been taking place at a rapid pace. For example, in 1986, exports represented 29% of GDP while in 1996 they had increased to 38% of GDP. This period of time was characterized by strong economic growth with an average annual growth rate of about 10%. From a physical perspective, material requirements more than doubled from 220 to 500 million tons of direct material inputs (DMI) during the same decade (the rate of material growth requirements was around 13% per year).The main objective of this study is to explain the changes in DMI by using a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The changes in material flow accounting (MFA) were broken down into the effects caused by changes in resource use per unit of output (material intensity effect), changes between and within sectors (structural change effect), changes in the composition of final demand (mix effect), changes due to shifting shares of domestic final demand and export categories (category effect) and finally changes in the overall level of economic activities (level effects). The results, as a percentage of the total level of DMI used in 1986, indicate that economic growth was the major source of material changes (109%). The material intensity and category effects explained 31% and 14% of the increase, respectively. The increase in the material intensity is mainly due to a declining quality of ores in copper production. However, these components were partly compensated by the structure (− 14%) and mix (− 13%) effects. Therefore, for a Southern American country such as Chile, the main causes of these changes in material consumption have been a combination of the nature of economic growth along with an increase in export production and material intensity of production.     

Considering the effects of imprecision and uncertainty in ecological footprint estimation: An approach in a fuzzy environment

This paper demonstrates the development of the Ecological Footprint within a fuzzy environment. The approach taken provides a means to understand the impacts of imprecision and uncertainty in the input-output framework, which forms a cornerstone of many recently constructed Footprint estimates. The paper uses, as a basis, an example of Footprint construction presented in the paper of Bicknell et al. [Bicknell, K.B., Ball, R.J., Cullen, R., Bigsby, H.R., 1998. New methodology for the Ecological Footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy. Ecological Economics 27, 149-160]. The analysis considers levels of fuzziness surrounding the technical coefficients in the underlying input-output framework. The results presented fully exposit the effect of the defined analysis, including the presentation of; fuzzy sector Ecological Footprints and overall fuzzy Ecological Footprint. Accompanying these findings, the fuzzy versions of certain moments associated with these Footprints are also presented, namely possibilistic mean and variance. The findings contribute to the elucidation of the potential policy impacts afforded when acknowledging imprecision and uncertainty in the data used in estimating Ecological Footprints.     

Aggregation (in-)variance of shared responsibility: A case study of Australia

This article deals with shared producer and consumer responsibility, a concept aimed at overcoming the non-additivity, or double-counting problem in corporate and national sustainability reporting. It reports on the potentially distorting effects that varying sector and business classifications could have on the apportioning of emissions (or other sustainability measures) amongst producers and consumers in an economy. A quantitative (in-)variance analysis is provided which shows that shared-responsibility formulations are remarkably stable under extreme aggregation of the underlying input-output data. Value-added pegging of the sharing parameters generally reduces variance in comparison to constant sharing parameters. These results help in substantiating the robustness of the shared-responsibility concept, a feature which is critically important if shared responsibility were to become corporate and national reporting practice.     

取消燃气和电力补贴对我国居民生活的影响

分析取消能源补贴对居民生活的影响是完善能源补贴改革的重要基础。本文首先应用价差法估算了中国2007年燃气和电力的补贴规模;其次考虑到中国居民贫富与区域差异,将城乡居民按收入水平分为10组,引入"能源预算"概念并设计"影响指数"、"承受力指数"等核心指标,结合投入产出模型,从直接和间接两方面综合研究了取消燃气和电力补贴对不同收入阶层居民生活的影响,分析结果表明无论从直接影响还是间接影响的角度,取消燃气和电力补贴对低收入阶层居民,尤其是农村低收入居民的冲击更大。最后基于实证分析结果,提出阶梯化定价机制与补贴转移等能够让低收入阶层居民真正获益的能源补贴改革建议。     

中国经济增长的动力来源与转换展望——基于最终需求角度的分析

基于最终需求视角分析中国经济增长的动力来源,可以为中国经济发展模式转变提供新的思路。本文利用国家统计局的投入产出数据,使用非竞争型投入产出模型,对1987—2007年间中国经济增长的动因进行了系统分析。结果表明:(1)包括消费、投资及出口在内的最终需求对于我国经济的拉动效果呈现下降趋势,当前经济的生产诱发效果重心主要在工业部门,且迅速地从轻工业向重工业转移;(2)1987—2007年间中国经济的依存结构发生了本质变化,经历了从"内需依存型"向"出口导向型"转变;(3)中国经济增长主要来源于最终需求的拉动,但动力来源结构在此期间发生了根本性的变化。最后,本文结合实证分析结果对中国经济发展方式转变提供了相关建议。     

广东房地产业的产业影响测度研究

近年房价快速上涨,对经济发展、居民财产变化和消费结构等产生深远影响,房地产是否应当作为支柱产业曾一度引发争论。利用第四、五次广东42部门投入产出调查数据,对房地产业的行业属性和功能的定位判断进行实证分析。     

投入产出式资金流量表和资金关联模型

本文设计并推算编制了中国投入产出式资金流量表,并借鉴投入产出分析模型构建了资金关联模型。文中首先归纳整理了国内外相关研究,在此基础上设计编制了针对我国资金流量核算特点的,涵盖金融交易和实物交易体现完整的资金流动内容的三种投入产出式资金流量表。三种表分别反映金融交易形成的部门间资金关联关系、实物交易形成的部门间资金关联关系、金融交易和实物交易等各交易项目之间的资金关联关系。本文构建的资金关联模型,能够实际应用于经济系统中资金关联关系的实证分析和研究。     

Planning for the Australian information economy

This study spotlights the inadequacy of the sectoral modeling used hitherto to analyse structural change in Australia. Although the multiplier and key-sector results demonstrate that contemporary Australia is predominantly an industrial economy, in the next decade the growth of the information intensiveness of economic activity or informatization will accelerate. A sectoral model clearly identifying the information sector is proposed to study the implications of the growing information intensiveness of the Australian economy. A methodology to identify the primary information economy or information commodities traded in the market is explained. The macroeconomic scenarios—income and price implications—of programming for various targets of information sector activities are analysed. Three plausible informatization targets are hypothesised: Luddite or zero growth; laissez-faire or continuing the status quo and sunrise or accelerated performance. The significance of Leontief accounting prices based on competitive equilibria and the shadow prices connoting opportunity costs of the linear programming dual are examined. Fiscal policies to subsidise positive externalities generated by informatization, in the fase of intractability of the Pigouvian ideal taxes are briefly reviewed. Finally, the need for anticipatory policy decisions in Australia to harness the full benefits of informatization is emphasised.     

Qualitative input-output analysis and structural information

The authors first introduce a slightly modified version of the quantitative theory of pull effects. After a short presentation of the basic ideas of qualitative input-output analysis with the aid of matrices, the qualitative goals of ‘completeness’ and ‘velocity’ are defined. The article ends with an investigation of the compatibility of these qualitative goals with the usual quantitative economic goals.